By James Watson (@james_watson98)
Last week saw only one winner in the first week of Punters’ Pick with Threat winning the Champagne Stakes at Even money. It was a disappointing week last week as Gunmetal was never at the races and I see he is entered in the Ayr Gold Cup this Saturday so knowing my luck he will pop up there. Logician was a runaway winner of the St Leger and looked all class in his victory. He has progressed through the grades well and surged to the top level. Sir Dragonet travelled well behind him but just failed to stay the distance in my opinion and think he will need to improve if he is to run in the Arc. Magical was given an inch perfect ride by Ryan Moore who ran away with the Irish Champion Stakes. She has been running behind Enable for most of the season and that win last weekend will certainly put her spot on for her last crack at Enable. Enough of last weekend disaster and let’s look forward to the Ayr Gold Cup.
We will start at the Ayr meeting and the Silver Cup. The consolation race for the Gold Cup sees horses who have just missed the cut for the big one. Alkaraama heads the field as 4/1 favourite for Sir Michael Stoute, Colm O’Donoghue and Sheik Hamdan. He is the least exposed in this field with only six runs with three wins. As good as them stats look all three of his wins have been on the all-weather. However, his 2nd at Ascot last time was a good performance and should be bang there. A few of these were behind him that day including my fancy in Glenamoy Lad. He’s had just two runs this season at Goodwood and Ascot and he is a hold up performer who likes to come through rivals and I think this race will suit him down to the ground. He’s gone up 2lbs for his 6th place last time which was a decent performance and he is back on his last winning mark and should be some decent each way value at the prices.
Ayr- 2:40 Glenamoy Lad 25/1 Each Way
The Firth of Clyde looks wide open with 7/2 the field and my selection is Final Option for William Muir. She horses made a very impressive debut at Ripon in August when winning by 5 ½ lengths. A month later she ran in the Dick Poole stakes Group 3 where she finished 4th behind some good rivals that day from top stables. She is a massive price here at 12/1 in my opinion as she proved that she could pick up a graded race with that run last time. Ben Curtis is booked for the ride and progression certainly isn’t ruled out if she continues her progression.
Ayr- 3:15 Final Option- 12/1 Each Way
My Ayr selections have been big prices so far and continue here with Hey Jonesy who is a four-year-old who is not easy to get right but think he might be tuned up to run a big race here. He has been running over 7 furlongs of late which I don’t think has suited him. He has only ever won one race and that was on his second start at York, so he is not prolific at getting his head in front. He has a visor on for the first time and his usual jockey is booked on board. He normally likes to run of softer ground which it probably won’t be, but he has a couple of good runs on good ground as a three-year-old so that shouldn’t be a worry. He’s been drawn low in eight which is possibly the only negative as I would rather him be on the other side but there is pace from Justanotherbottle, Staxton and Soldiers Minute which should give him a lead. I think he is massively overpriced and look out for the extra places.
Ayr-3:50 Hey Jonesy 25/1 Each Way
Over to Newbury now where Dakota Gold looks to continue his winning run through the grades with a Group 3 performance. The Michael Dods gelding has worked his way through the handicaps and topped off last time with a Listed win. He moves away from his beloved York to Newbury which shouldn’t be an issue and usual jockey Connor Beasley is legged up and he should lead from pillar to post. He’s a fairly short price but you could double them up with my next few selections.
Newbury 1:45 Dakota Gold 7/4
The Mill Reef has an illustrious list of winners in James Garfield, Ribchester and Harry Angel. Pierre Lapin looks to emulate his half-brothers’ victory from 2016 in this after his impressive victory at Haydock. He looked a big unit that day and overcame trouble in running to win comfortably in the end. He has been off five months which will have done him the world of good and is bred for sprint trips which it looks they will stay with. His main rival is Mystery Power who has won a group 2 and carries a penalty here and if Pierre Lapin wins here it will cement his place for next seasons Commonwealth Cup. I think the world of this horse and think he will make an even better three-year-old.
Newbury 2:55 Pierre Lapin 3/1
By James Watson (@james_watson98)
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