By James Watson (@james_watson98)
This is the first in the series of Punters’ Picks which looks to find you, the punter, some winners. Four selections for this week and hopefully we can get off to a flyer.
St Leger day kicks off with the traditional Portland handicap which sees the unexposed Bielsa head the top of the market. He is three from three so far and was very impressive I thought when winning at Thirsk last time. He battled on well that day and I was surprised to see him dropped back down to the 5f as he stayed on so strongly over 6f. He deserves to head the market, but he wouldn’t be for me. Dazzling Dan is a horse I adore as he has been ultra-consistent for Pam Sly. He always goes under the radar because of who he is trained by and he added to his tally last time at Newmarket. He now goes to three wins out of nine including four places. He’s up another 5lb and regular jockey David Probert is not aboard, and I think he’s could have hit his peak mark now off 104 and might struggle. At the prices I am going to have one more go at Gunmetal for David Barron. The booking of Donnacha O’Brien is very interesting and has dropped to a dangerous mark. He last won the Great St Wilfred of a mark of 97 and runs of 99 today. He has run well of higher as well and I was with him when gambled on at York last time. He was disappointing that day, but I am willing to give him one more go and at 16/1 which is very good each way value especially if places are offering six places.
1:50 Doncaster – Gunmetal 16/1 – 6 places
The Champagne Stakes saw Too Darn Hot announce himself onto the stage last year and hopefully Threat will look to resemble a similar performance. He won the Gimcrack very well last time out and ran as if the step up to 7f would suit him. Early on in his career I was of the opinion that sprinting trips would be more up his street, but I would be proven wrong. I was slightly disappointed in his performance at Goodwood when he was denied by Golden Horde in the Richmond, but his performance last time showed him to be as good as ever and he should take all the beating although he’s a short price. Juan Elcano looked as green as grass when winning on debut and the sloppy ground at Haydock certainly suited him then. He was then stepped up into the Superlative stakes at the July Meeting when finding one too good in that. He has been withdrawn due to the ground in recent weeks and with the racing so far this week the ground might be closer to good rather than soft which is a worry for me. Royal Crusade was impressive on debut at Newmarket after overcoming a slow beginning. This is a big step up, but I wouldn’t rule him out for the Godolphin team.
3:00 Doncaster – Threat EVENS
The pinnacle of the day is the St Leger which has an illustrious list of winners looks wide open in this year’s contest. This years isn’t as easy to fathom out as I would usually done, and the field is fairly poor in my opinion. Logician is the market leader and he deserve to be at the top of the market. He has progressed with each run this year and has gone through the gears in each start. He was breath-taking in the Great Voltigeur when beating Constantinople decisively. Hes a big imposing sort who looks like he will stay the distance, but he is a too shorter price with too many question marks for me. Sir Dragonet is the solid option for me and the Coolmoore lads have been nothing but positive about him. Donnacha take the ride for his father which I prefer as he has ridden him in the majority of his starts and this late bloomer will run his race. His run last time made him look like he would improve after he’d had a long break. Also, the step up in trip should suit him and I think he will be the main challenger to Logician as he has strong Group one for rather than the latter. Sir Ron Priestly is a horse who I have enjoyed watching progress so far this season. Hes gone from strength to strength so far and has progressed through handicaps to get to the top level. Hes 12/1 which is a decent each way price.
3:35 Doncaster – Sir Dragonet 11/4
Last of all is the Irish Champion stakes which isn’t the classiest field but full of solid performers who still look to have a decent future. Magical is the solid one at the top of the market and has been consistently looking at Enable’s backside for most of the season. We know where we stand with her and her allowance makes here have a serious chance. Elarqam was mightily unlucky last time in the Juddmonte international when the pace of the race didn’t suit. They went slow at the beginning and sprinted for home which didn’t suit. I think that form is rock solid and if things go his way, he will be seriously difficult to pass. Headman has been applying his trade in French graded races after his magnificent performance in the London Gold Cup. He steps into the big time here and might feel the pressure a slight too much, but he is progressing with each run and could put up a massive performance here especially if the ground is soft.
4:15 Leopardstown – Elarqam 7/2
By James Watson (@james_watson98)
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